Warsaw calling: A view from the ground

Building on insights from our prior research visits in 2023 and 2024, we returned to Warsaw this summer to assess how Polish companies are navigating the current economic and geopolitical environment. Over the course of a week, we conducted a series of reverse roadshows, meeting with corporate executives across sectors including consumer, real estate, infrastructure, industrials, health care, technology, media and gaming. Visiting companies in their own environments, rather than at conferences, gave us a more grounded view of their strategic focus, day-to-day operations and internal culture.

While Poland is often still viewed through the lens of its post-communist past, the reality on the ground tells a very different story. Today’s Poland is a modern, outward-looking EU economy, entrepreneurial, digitally driven and increasingly integral to regional supply chains and defence infrastructure.

What stood out this year was the visible progress in urban infrastructure. Warsaw continues to modernize, supported by EU-backed investment in roads, rail and public transit. The subway system is not only clean and efficient, but also notably safe. Highways are well-maintained, and we observed more active construction than in prior visits, particularly in residential projects. These developments reflect ongoing urbanization, with growing challenges around land availability further reinforcing housing demand.

On the macro front, Poland appears to be regaining its footing. Wage growth has outpaced inflation over the past two years, helping to restore purchasing power. Unemployment remains among the lowest in the EU, and the National Bank of Poland has implemented two rate cuts in 2025, with room for further easing. That said, while household balance sheets are healthier, consumers remain selective in their spending. Management teams across sectors described a more stable but cautious demand environment.

Overall sentiment was notably more optimistic than in prior visits. While risks remain (from labour shortages and EU fund disbursement delays to geopolitical uncertainty) most companies projected confidence in their positioning. Disruption in global trade flows and ongoing tariff negotiations between the EU and the United States were also cited as areas to monitor, though their immediate impact on domestic operations has been limited.

Several structural themes emerged from our conversations. First, consolidation continues to reshape the competitive landscape in Poland. This was particularly evident in diagnostics, fitness, convenience retail and residential development. Second, an increasing number of Polish companies are executing or planning regional expansions into Central and Eastern Europe, and even Western Europe, suggesting growing confidence, scale and ambition.

We were also encouraged by the practical adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Rather than buzzwords, companies are deploying AI to improve efficiency, customer experience and decision-making. Use cases included radiology interpretation in diagnostics, store network optimization in retail, chatbot support and workflow tools in classifieds, targeting in digital advertising and content generation in game development. These deployments are already contributing to margin enhancement and productivity gains.

Anecdotally, one leading convenience chain noted that it is now the largest seller of coffee and pizza in Poland, a testament to how local champions are reshaping consumer behaviour and capturing everyday spend.

In our view, Poland continues to offer a depth of high-quality, bottom-up ideas. It combines structural EU support with entrepreneurial dynamism, accelerating technological adoption and rising regional ambition. Our research efforts allow us to identify hidden champions early and build conviction through firsthand engagement.

Budimex SA (BDX PW)

A position we initiated earlier this year, Budimex reflects several of the structural themes we observed on the ground: public infrastructure, disciplined execution and regional relevance. The company is Poland’s largest infrastructure contractor, playing a critical role in the country’s road, rail, military and energy-related construction projects. It benefits from NATO and EU certifications that enable participation in sensitive public tenders, particularly in the defence sector.

Budimex follows an asset-light model, maintaining in-house design and project management capabilities while outsourcing labour-intensive work. This structure enhances flexibility and allows the company to scale efficiently across diverse projects.

While Poland remains its core market, Budimex is also expanding its footprint across the region, with active operations in Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltics. These markets offer infrastructure demand that fits with Budimex’s core competencies and represent a natural next step in its evolution.

Poland is undergoing a historic infrastructure transformation, supported by EU cohesion funds, national defence investments and long-term energy transition plans. Budimex’s strong execution track record, disciplined bidding strategy and established relationships with key government entities make it well-positioned to benefit from this cycle.

While the company has developed capabilities in infrastructure services and maintenance, it is currently evaluating the strategic direction of that segment.