European defence spending set to explode

Europe has decided to take its defence into its own hands as it experiences a fast-evolving geopolitical environment. In order for Europe to reduce its reliance on US military support, it would take a reversal of decades of underinvestment. After rapid growth in the last few years, NATO’s European members are about to reach the targeted 2% of GDP spent on defence. However, much more would be required for Europe to boost its defence capabilities.

Over the past weeks, many countries and organizations have stepped forward, announcing proposals to increase their defence spending.

The European Commission proposed to suspend the EU budget rules to allow member states to increase defence spending. If members collectively raise their defence budgets by an average of 1.5% of GDP, this would theoretically create an extra funding capacity of €650 billion over four years.

Norway is contemplating the idea of converting €300 billion of its sovereign wealth fund into European defence bonds to support the production and procurement of military equipment in Europe.

Germany is prepared to spend big on defence and infrastructure. Last week, Germany’s bloc representing the two main parties presented a sweeping fiscal reform package with an aim to reform the debt brake and create a new infrastructure fund worth €500 billion. The debt brake reform is meant to exempt any defence spending over 1% of GDP from the deficit limit rule. This would allow Germany to substantially increase its defence budget.

In order to do so, Germany would need to amend its constitution which requires a 75% voting majority in parliament. This means the Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union and Social Democratic Party will need support from the Greens, who have rejected the plans as of today. The Greens have been advocating for both higher military spending and greater support for Ukraine, as well as an expansion of debt-financed investments in the past. Based on their own political positions, we believe it would be a surprise if they did not eventually agree to the plans.

Obviously, the European defence OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and their suppliers will be a direct beneficiary of that defence spending trend. Other indirect beneficiaries include IT services companies, machinery manufacturers and aerospace suppliers. RENK Group AG (R3NK DE), a company we initiated last year, is also well positioned to benefit from the rearmament in Europe.

Founded in 1873, RENK is the global leader in mission-critical drivetrain components for the defence and energy transition sectors, providing systems to set vehicles, vessels and machinery in motion. Its competitive advantages include its ability to manufacture robust and reliable transmission systems and it features better power density vs. its peers. In naval propulsion, its manufacturing precision of less than 2-3 microns helps develop ultra-low vibration and noise systems. Its manufacturing and service footprint include 14 plants and three maintenance and repair service sites.

The higher-margin aftermarket business, which represents about 37% of revenue, provides high visibility and strong cash generation. The company generates 56% of its sales in Europe, 29% in the Americas and 15% in APAC. For its 2024 fiscal year, the company’s reported revenue of €1.1 billion (+23% vs. last year) and an adjusted EBIT of €189 million (+26%). RENK posted a record order intake of €1.4 billion for 2024 (+14%).

We believe RENK is well-equipped to capture market share in the European defence industry.